基于MCI的内蒙古气象干旱强度特征分析
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引用本文:曲学斌,杨钦宇,王慧清,等..基于MCI的内蒙古气象干旱强度特征分析[J].气象与环境科学,2019,42(4):47-54.Qu Xuebin,Yang Qingyu,Wang Huiqing,et al..Characteristics of Meteorological Drought Intensity in Inner Mongolia Based on MCI[J].Meteorological and Environmental Sciences,2019,42(4):47-54.
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曲学斌,杨钦宇,王慧清,等.  
DOI:doi:10.16765/j.cnki.1673-7148.2019.04.008
基金项目:
中文摘要:根据新修订的《气象干旱等级》(GB/T 204812017)国家标准,计算了内蒙古82个气象站1962-2017年4月至10月逐日气象干旱综合指数(MCI),利用相关性分析、M K检验、EOF分解、Morlet小波等方法,分析了内蒙古不同区域干旱强度时空分布及变化特征,为开展基于MCI的气象干旱监测业务提供科学依据。结果表明:内蒙古地区MCI的监测结果与农业旱灾综合减产成数(C指标)具有较高的相关性。内蒙古春季干旱强度普遍较重,夏季干旱强度受地形影响明显,阴山以北、贺兰山以西干旱强度较重,秋季干旱强度相对较轻。从干旱的年际变化来看,春季干旱强度有减弱趋势,秋季有增强趋势,夏季干旱强度与年平均干旱强度无明显变化。EOF分析的前三个主要模态为全区一致、东西部相反和中部与东西部相反,其贡献率分别为55.2%、8.2%和5.0%。春季和夏季干旱强度的主要变化周期为3~4 a和6~7 a,秋季除短周期外还存在17~19 a的长周期,各季节在1995-2005年间还存在显著的1~2 a短周期变化,说明该时期内蒙古地区年际间的旱涝变化剧烈。
中文关键词:干旱  MCI  内蒙古  时空分布
 
Characteristics of Meteorological Drought Intensity in Inner Mongolia Based on MCI
Abstract:According to the lately revised national standard of Meteorological Drought Grade (GB/T 204812017), the daily MCI (meteorological drought comprehensive index) of 82 meteorological stations between April and October in 1962-2017 in Inner Mongolia was calculated. The spatial and temporal distribution and variation of drought intensity in different regions of Inner Mongolia were analyzed by using the methods of M K test, EOF decomposition and Morlet wavelet, which provides scientific basis for developing meteorological drought monitoring operation based on MCI. The results show that there is a high correlation between MCI in Inner Mongolia and the comprehensive yield reduction (C index) of agricultural drought. The drought intensity in Inner Mongolia is heavier in spring, lighter in autumn and obviously affected by topography in summer when the drought intensity in the areas to the north of Yinshan Mountain and to the west of Helan Mountain is heavier. According to the interannual variation of drought, the drought intensity shows a weakening trend in spring, but an enhancing trend in autumn and no noticeable changes in summer and annual averages. EOF analysis shows that the intensity distribution of drought in Inner Mongolia is mainly distributed in three main modes: identical in the whole region, opposite between the east and the west, and opposite between the central part and the east and west, and their contribution rates are 55.2%, 8.2% and 5.0% respectively. The main variation periods of drought intensity in spring and summer are 34 a and 67 a. For autumn, a long change period of 1719 a exists in addition to short period. In addition, there was also a significant change in the short period of 12 a during 1995-2005, which indicates that the drought and flood conditions changed sharply during this period in the Inner Mongolia region.
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