基于主成分分析的两次雷电过程特性对比
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引用本文:刘晓燕,马秀梅,代青措,等..基于主成分分析的两次雷电过程特性对比[J].气象与环境科学,2019,42(4):119-126.Liu Xiaoyan,Ma Xiumei,Dai Qingcuo,et al..Comparation on Characteristics of Two Lightning Processes Based on the Principal Component Analysis[J].Meteorological and Environmental Sciences,2019,42(4):119-126.
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刘晓燕,马秀梅,代青措,等.  
DOI:doi:10.16765/j.cnki.1673-7148.2019.04.017
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中文摘要:雷电发生时涉及的宏观环境参量多且复杂,考虑不损失大量信息的前提下,基于主成分分析法对两次雷电天气过程进行特性对比,凝练雷电天气潜势预报和临近预报的着眼点,有助于提高其预报准确率。利用闪电、雷达和天气背景资料选取2011-2013年68月西宁雷电活动样本,提取同时次探空资料中26个环境参数作主成分分析,深入分析2012年7月29日(过程Ⅰ)和2013年8月26日(过程Ⅱ)两次雷电天气过程的演变和环境条件。结果表明:大气动力和大气温湿类参数与西宁雷电活动关系最为密切,闪电强度累积概率显示动力类较温湿类偏强,平均负地闪强度偏大-1.91 kA,平均正地闪强度偏大1.92 kA。过程Ⅰ表现为西风槽型雷电天气,受大气温湿类参数影响较大;而过程Ⅱ属于副高边缘型雷电天气,明显受大气动力参数影响。两次过程的闪电活动均以负地闪为主,都有明显的日变化规律,且呈单峰型分布。过程Ⅰ在闪电频次上占优势,但在强度上明显弱于过程Ⅱ的。
中文关键词:对比分析  雷电过程  主成分分析
 
Comparation on Characteristics of Two Lightning Processes Based on the Principal Component Analysis
Abstract:The environment parameters in the occurrence of lightning involved many information and complexity.In order to reduce losing a lot of information,the characteristics of twice lightning weather process were contrasted by using the principal component analysis.It was helpful to improve the forecast accuracy by summarizing the potential forecast and the approach forecast of lightning weather.Based on the flash,radar,weather background data and sounding data from June to August during 2011-2013 at Xining station,the environment parameters of lightning activity were analyzed by using the principal component analysis.The evolution and environmental conditions of thunderstorm weather on July 29,2012 (process I) and August 26,2013 (process Ⅱ) were analyzed in depth.The results are as follows.Atmospheric dynamic and atmospheric humidity parameters had good relationship with lightning activity in Xining.The cumulative probability of lightning intensity showed that the dynamic of lightning activity was stronger than the temperature and humidity,and the average negative ground lightning intensity was -1.91 kA and the average positive ground lightning intensity was 1.92 kA.The process Ⅰ was westerly trough weather,it was more related to atmospheric temperature and humidity parameters.The process Ⅱ was the edge of subtropical high weather,it was more related to atmospheric dynamics parameters.They both were given priority to with negative lightning with obvious diurnal variation and single peak distribution.Lightning frequency had an advantage in process Ⅰ,and intensity in process Ⅱ.
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