2018年末湖南雨雪冰冻过程对农业的影响及大棚积雪致灾指标构建
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引用本文:汪天颖,廖玉芳,李晶..2018年末湖南雨雪冰冻过程对农业的影响及大棚积雪致灾指标构建[J].气象与环境科学,2019,42(4):1-9.Wang Tianying,Liao Yufang,Li Jing..Impact of Freezing Rain and Snow Process on Agriculture in Hunan Province at the End of 2018 and Construction of Disaster Index Caused by Greenhouse Snow[J].Meteorological and Environmental Sciences,2019,42(4):1-9.
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汪天颖,廖玉芳,李晶.  
DOI:doi:10.16765/j.cnki.1673-7148.2019.04.001
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中文摘要:研究低温雨雪冰冻天气过程对越冬作物的影响及塑料大棚积雪致灾指标对开展区域农业冬季灾害防御、塑料大棚雪灾监测预警具有现实意义。为此,以湖南省为研究区域,基于全省97个地面气象观测站逐日气象资料,结合农作物、塑料大棚灾情资料,采用S W检验、正态分布置信区间估计方法,研究2018年12月27日2019年1月3日低温雨雪冰冻天气过程对农业生产的影响,并构建了湖南省塑料大棚积雪致灾气象指标;利用多元线性回归方程,模拟了积雪深度变化,探讨了冬季大棚灾害的主要影响因素、冰冻持续与气温要素的关系。结果表明:过程中全省大部分地区出现了≥4 d轻度及以上低温,伴随中度冰冻,其中湘西南、湘东北和湘北是受灾最严重的地区,塑料大棚和油菜、冬季蔬菜、柑橘等作物受灾严重;构建得到湖南大棚致灾积雪深度指标为5 cm,独立样本验证结果与实际灾情有较好一致性;日最高气温、最低气温、降水量3要素与积雪增量呈显著线性相关,可用于积雪深度预测;塑料大棚受损程度与农村人均可支配收入、致灾因子强度密切相关;地区冰冻观测状态与日最低气温关联程度高,农业生产中需更加关注日最低气温低于0 ℃的出现和持续时间。
中文关键词:低温雨雪冰冻  大棚  积雪  致灾指标
 
Impact of Freezing Rain and Snow Process on Agriculture in Hunan Province at the End of 2018 and Construction of Disaster Index Caused by Greenhouse Snow
Abstract:Studying the impact of cryogenic freezing rain and snow on winter crops and the disaster index of snow cover on plastic greenhouses are of realistic significance to the prevention of regional agricultural disaster in winter and the monitoring and early warning of greenhouse snow disaster. For this purpose, this paper takes Hunan province as a research area and studies the impact of cryogenic freezing event, which took place from 27 December 2018 to 3 January 2019 in Hunan, on agriculture by using the daily data from 97 meteorological stations and the disaster data of crops and plastic greenhouses as well as the Shapiro Wilk test and normal distribution methods. Besides, the meteorological disaster index of plastic greenhouse snow in Hunan is constructed, the multiple linear regression is used for snow depth simulation, and the main factors of winter greenhouse disasters and the relationship between temperature and freezing duration are discussed. The results show that most parts of Hunan suffered ≥4 d light degree or over light degree low temperature injury during the process, accompanied by moderate freezing, of which southwestern, northeastern and northern parts of Hunan were the worst hit areas with plastic greenhouse and crops like oilseed rape, winter vegetable and citrus being seriously injured. The constructed disaster index of greenhouse snow is 5 cm, and the result of independent sample verification shows better consistency with what happened actually. The daily maximum temperature, minimum temperature and precipitation amount have significant linear correlations to snow accumulation, which could be applied in snow depth predicting. The damage to plastic greenhouses is closely related to the rural disposable income per capita and hazard factor intensity. The frozen state in the study area is highly correlated with the daily minimum temperature, so more attentions should be paid to the occurrence and duration of daily low temperature below 0 ℃ in agricultural production.
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